The Detroit Pistons (-1.5, 212.5) and Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5, 212) will try to stave off elimination on their home floors against the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets, respectively, on the Thursday NBA schedule. Whereas the Clippers are playing their first elimination game, the Pistons successfully extended their season in New York with a 106-103 road victory on Thursday. Ausar Thompson, who averaged 10.1 points per game this season, played a key role with 22 points, the same number he had over the previous three games combined. The No. 5 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft has an over/under of 9.5 total points for Game 6 in the latest NBA player props. Kawhi Leonard, who’s recorded a double-double in two of his last three games, has +240 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook to finish with a double-double in Thursday’s NBA prop bets.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Cade Cunningham Under 43.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
Cunningham is on the verge of cementing himself in superstar status among the NBA elite and if the Pistons rally from a 3-1 deficit to ultimately knock off the Knicks, he may reach just that. The Pistons need Cunningham to be effective to win, but they don’t necessarily need him to take over a game and dominate in every statistic. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft had 24 points, eight rebounds and eight assists to finish just Under this number in Game 5 and he’s gone Under this number in three of five games this series.
Cunningham is averaging 25.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game this series for a 42.8 PRA. He has gone Under his total PRA in three of his last five games when at home and playing a top third defense, averaging 41.2, and the Knicks ranked ninth in total defense this year. The model projects Cunningham for a 37.2 PRA total on Thursday as the Knicks won’t want to find themselves in the pressure of a Game 7 after holding a 3-1 lead. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best odds at -110. Other sportsbooks have juiced the Under and raised the over/under to 44.5, but the model sees the best value in going Under 43.5 at a traditional -110 price.
Dennis Schroder Over 9.5 points (-127)
Schroder had 14 points in Game 5, scoring at least 14 points for the third time over his last four games in this series. Even though the veteran guard’s playing time decreased to 22 minutes in Game 5, he still maximized his opportunities with 13 field-goal attempts, the most of any game this series, despite playing his fewest minutes. The 31-year-old guard can lead the second unit and play with the freedom to create his own shot. The model projects Schroeder for 11.3 points over 29 minutes, and he’s gone Over this number in 18 of his last 24 games.
“Detroit’s major weakness this series has been too many turnovers, and Schroder is their most reliable ball handler with just six turnovers in the five games so far,” Oh said. “He is shooting 52% from the field and 53% from 3-point range and he benefits from coming off fresh from the bench, probably facing a defender who is already beginning to tire.” BetRivers is offereing Schroder at 9.5 points and -127 odds while other sportsbooks have raised his number to 10.5 points.
Christian Braun Over 10.5 points (-130)
Braun has gone Over this number in back-to-back games, averaging 14 ppg over that span, and his total is still on the lower side after scoring five points in Game 2 and nine points in Game 3. The model projects Braun for 13 points on Thursday after the 24-year-old guard averaged 15.4 ppg for the Nuggets during the regular season. Braun scored at least 11 points in 32 of 41 road games this season (78%).
“I am taking the 10.5 over the 11.5 because he has scored 11 exactly in three of the last six games and I couldn’t live with myself if he finishes with 11 again,” Oh said. “I also like that he has contributed in non-scoring areas with 19 rebounds and nine assists in his last two games and his value across the board will keep his minutes in the high 30s.” Braun is -130 at BetMGM to go Over 10.5 points, whereas other sportsbooks have raised his number to 11.5 points.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Thursday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Thursday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Mike Barner’s picks. He’s 148-104 (+2601) over his last 252 NBA player prop picks and he already has a pick locked in for Thursday.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Alex Selesnick, aka PropStarz, who is 129-92 (+1467) over his last 221 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine now to see who PropStarz is including in his NBA picks for Thursday, which includes a player prop on a key Nuggets player.
