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The long-term value of generative AI has yet to be fully recognized by anyone.
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Nvidia has been the biggest winner from AI spending so far, but the second-order effects of the trend could be even bigger.
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Meta Platforms has a clear roadmap for how AI can improve its business over the long run.
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If you looked at a list of the world’s 20 most valuable companies from a decade ago, you’d notice several familiar names: Apple, Microsoft, Google (now Alphabet), and Berkshire Hathaway all made the list back then.
But as much as things have stayed the same, there’s also been considerable turnover and movement in the ranks. Wells Fargo and Novartis have fallen way down the list over the last decade. Nvidia had only recently climbed out of the mid-cap stock range in 2015, but soared into the top 10 in 2021.
All this is to say a lot can change in 10 years. And I believe one “Magnificent Seven” company that’s bringing up the rear in that group today is also the one that’s best positioned to become the world’s most valuable company within the next decade.
Nvidia has been a huge beneficiary over the last few years from the massive artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure spending by the hyperscalers: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META). Its cutting-edge GPUs (graphics processing units) are unparalleled when it comes to training large language models in the most cost-efficient manner. As a result, Nvidia is selling its chips just as fast as they’re manufactured (indeed, faster — its order backlog for Blackwell GPUs is now around a year), leading to strong margin expansion and earnings growth.
But the long-term winners of any technological revolution tend to be those that are best able to use the technology. That is, the second-order effects of new technology are even bigger than the first-order effects. To use the old gold rush analogy, it’s not the pick and shovel makers, but the prospectors with the best systems for utilizing those picks and shovels who end up wealthiest of all.
With that in mind, Meta looks best positioned to take advantage of everything large language models and generative AI can do. That’s why I expect it to be the biggest second-order winner from artificial intelligence, and why I anticipate that tailwind to propel it to the status of most valuable company in the world. It’ll just take some time for the company (and investors) to fully realize the impact of AI on its business.