Early results in Canada’s general election indicated Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to form a government, the culmination of a stunning reversal in his Liberal Party’s political prospects after a grim end to the reign of once-popular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Canadian broadcasters CBC and CTV have projected Carney to remain in his post, pulling off a dramatic victory after he inherited a Liberal Party trailing in polls by double digits to the main opposition Conservative Party, as former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity took a hit.
The Liberal Party is projected to outperform its Conservative rival in the Parliament’s 343-seat House. What still remains unclear is whether Carney, a seasoned economist turned politician, will form a majority or minority government. A party needs to win 172 seats in the House for a majority.
As things stand, Canadian media projects Carney’s party to secure 161 seats. Poilievre’s conservatives are not far behind, projected to win 150 seats.
The election also marks a galling defeat for Canada’s Conservatives, who under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre had expected to be returned to power until a diplomatic and trade crisis caused by the re-inauguration of Donald Trump dramatically undercut the appeal of a populist swing to the right.
Trudeau’s popularity had cratered in the last years of his prime ministership, and a wave of by-election losses and high-profile cabinet resignations ultimately drove him to announce his resignation in January this year — two weeks before Trump was sworn in for his second term.
However, Trudeau responded to Trump’s intense threats against Canada in the early phase of his presidency with unexpectedly tough and patriotic rhetoric that immediately recaptured support that he had lost.
Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, won a thumping victory in the race to succeed Trudeau as Liberal leader, and was able to ride the wave the dramatic surge in Liberal support.
Bloc Québécois (BQ), are projected to win 23 seats, the New Democratic Party (NDP) 8 seats, whilst the Green Party are on course to win just one seat.
The Trump factor
Since he came to power at the end of January, Trump has put Canada firmly in his sights. He and other figures in his administration have taken to referring to it as the US’ potential 51st state and mocked Carney’s predecessor as “Governor Trudeau”.
Trump has also threatened to impose aggressive tariffs on various Canadian goods entering the US. Some of those tariffs have been enacted, while others have been paused or retracted just before coming into force.
This combined with Trump’s vague but threatening remarks about a potential annexation led Carney to declare that the two allied countries’ relationship had fundamentally changed.
“The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over,” he said in a speech on 28 March.
“It’s clear the US is no longer a reliable partner. It is possible that with comprehensive negotiations, we could reestablish an element of confidence but there will be no going backwards.”
