Labor leads by quite a bit
We’re not expecting much in the way of counting today as the AEC usually spends Sunday sorting and transporting ballot papers for fresh counts, so there may not be many updates on still undecided seats today.
However, here’s where we’re currently at with the seats projected as won by each party, and the number of seats for which the ABC has that party leading as at 10am Sunday morning:
The party leading in quite a few of the undecided seats could well change as they’re either very close or the final order of the candidates for two-candidate-preferred counts is uncertain, so we can’t rely on the totals too much just yet. However, Labor is on track for at least 85 seats, and the final tally could well be more.
The Greens have suffered quite a setback here too, as they currently only lead in two seats. In 2022 they won four seats, so they are looking at a loss of two seats as things stand, despite their national primary vote actually remaining steady compared with 2022.
Senate state of play
Here’s the state of play in the Senate, combining the number of Senate spots won for each party based on the AEC’s provisional quota counts, plus the existing senators who weren’t up for election this year. Also shown are the number of likely Senate seats according to the ABC’s analysis.
Labor is on track to have 27 senators, the Coalition 26, the Greens 11, and then various minor parties and independents making up another six. There are still six Senate seats in doubt.
This means that Labor won’t have a majority in the Senate, which is not surprising. However, Labor’s gains do mean that Labor plus 11 Greens and one other independent could form the majority needed to pass legislation without the Coalition blocking it.
Where are the seats changing hands, and which areas swung hard for Labor?
The seats changing hands are a mix of suburban seats like Hughes and Banks in NSW, Moore in WA, Dickson, Petrie and Bonner in Queensland, and then larger seats covering towns and regional areas such as Leichhardt in Queensland’s north and Bass and Braddon in Tasmania:
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The map above also shows the swing if you toggle the dropdown menu. Some of the highest two-party-preferred swings are in the seats changing hands, like Braddon, Bass and Leichhardt, but also seats which haven’t switched, like Bruce and Lyons.
The major party vote decline continues
Despite Labor’s big win, Australia’s two-party system has continued its long-term decline, with the combined major party primary vote dropping again compared with 2022:
If these primary vote splits hold once the remaining votes are counted, then we will have crossed a significant, albeit symbolic threshold – at least one-third of Australians will have voted for someone other than a Labor or Coalition candidate for the first time.
This declining primary vote is also causing some issues with vote counting on election night. Ahead of counting, the AEC makes an assumption on which candidates are likely to be in the final two so they can conduct the two-party-preferred count more quickly. If this final pairing is different to the AEC’s initial assumption, then the seat is designated as “maverick” and the two-party-preferred count, which uses the preference counts of all votes, is suspended until the proper final pairing can be determined.
This election, a whopping 21 seats were declared maverick, which means we will have to wait longer to get the two-candidate-preferred counts. According to election analyst Ben Raue, this is due in no small part to the rising non-major party vote, as the gap between second and third candidates is becoming smaller.
