It would be very rough on Nottingham Forest to criticise them too heavily for a result that went entirely to form and expectation, but they will nonetheless be extremely disappointed – disbelieving, even – with the nature of the defeat.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have excelled at defying statistical common sense this season, to the extent it may yet take them to Champions League football next season. Lost on expected goals? Yeah, but they’ve won it on the scoreboard. Modern vogue for high pressing and possession-based football? None of that for them, thanks, they’re going to do it their own way.
Through a combination of their own failures and some absolutely wretched luck, all of that abandoned Forest at Wembley as Manchester City ran out victorious in the FA Cup semi-final to set up a meeting with Crystal Palace.
A Nottingham Forest side so lauded for squeezing the space and making life difficult around the box achieved neither objective as Rico Lewis fired City ahead less than two minutes in, moving himself free from any attention just in front of the Forest rearguard and placing the ball well beyond Matz Sels’ grasp.
For a long time Forest struggled to get a foothold into the game, but should have equalised immediately after the second half began. Half-time introduction Anthony Elanga had it put on a plate for him by Callum Hudson-Odoi, but pulled his shot wide of the post.
Sels then pulled out of coming to claim a corner, helping to allow Josko Gvardiol a free header into the top corner for 2-0.
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Even from there, Forest still had a chance, showing more and more attacking threat as they desperately tried to get back into the game. The margins were as fine as the width of the woodwork, which admittedly in an A4 notebook would be massive, but to Forest was frustratingly tiny…thrice.
Morgan Gibbs-White unleashed a brilliant hit from the edge of the box, only for it to come back off the crossbar, and soon after exploited a misplaced Gvardiol pass across his own box to round Stefan Ortega, but put just enough outswing on his shot from a narrow angle for it to swerve away from crossing the line and return into play off the far post.
Taiwo Awoniyi couldn’t have done much more as he reacted to flick the ball towards goal ten minutes from time like GOB Bluth doing a chicken impression. Once again the metaphorical woodwork was struck.
Forest will be left to rue those moments, but in the cold light of day might also regret that it took them so long to respond to City taking that early lead.
They did not manage a single shot on goal until that Elanga miss in the first minute of the second half, and even for a side that does not make pressing a priority, were far too passive in the face of a City side that thrives on patient control. Forest were the better side in the second half and in particular the final half hour, but just could not finish. Had they started that wave of momentum earlier – or even if Elanga had buried his golden chance at 1-0 – that second City goal might never have come and we could have had an entirely different game.
But you get nothing for hypotheticals (not in this game!), and City will argue they were worthy winners after dominating more of the game than they ceded and taking their biggest chances when they came. Even in a bad season by their own standards, we know very well that they do not do those things by accident.
An FA Cup triumph would be mere consolation compared with another Premier League or Champions League trophy, but it has long since been all they have had to hold onto. Pep Guardiola needs only take his side through one more successful trip to Wembley to end a miserable campaign with at least a bit of a smile.
