CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten on Monday revealed how President Donald Trump’s steady dip in polling could prove to hurt Republicans in next year’s midterms.
“If the House GOP is under any illusion that Donald Trump’s fall in the polls won’t bring them down as well, well, they are living on fantasy island,” Enten said in a segment with CNN’s John Berman.
Enten — who stressed the day before that there’s “no way to sugarcoat” Trump’s falling approval ratings — turned to recent polling from CNBC, The New York Timesand Fox News showing that Democrats fare better against Republicans by an average of 4 percentage points on a generic congressional ballot.
He noted that the figures indicate a “tremendous shift” from November, when the House GOP won the popular vote by 2.7 percentage points.
Enten, when asked where the shift appears in the “most pronounced way,” pointed to polling from the Times showing Trump’s net favorability rating with independents sinking from -9 percentage points in October to -30 percentage points this month.
“That’s horrific, that’s historically awful,” he said of the numbers.
Independents also favored Democrats more than Republicans by 3 percentage points on a generic ballot in October, per the Times, a figure that — according to Enten — is “well within” the margin of error.
This month, Democrats are up 17 percentage points with independents over the GOP on a generic ballot.
“There is no way on God’s green earth that the Republicans can hold onto the House of Representatives if they lose independents by 17 percentage points. My goodness, gracious,” Enten said.
“This is what dreams are made of if you’re House Democrats, and it’s all being driven — or at least in large part being driven — by Donald Trump’s rapid drop with independents.”
As the president gears up to mark 100 days of his second term this week, his job approval rating has fallen to the lowest at or near the 100th day in a presidency since Franklin D. Roosevelt’s third term in 1945, per an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released Sunday.
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