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There is a lot of uncertainty in polling. Despite the individual polls results, Labor has yet to show a clear lead in Guardian Australia’s modelling. The model averages the polls over the time they are in the field and factors in sample sizes, previous results and the “house effects” (bias towards a party) of each pollster.
There is a lot of uncertainty in polling. Despite the individual polls results, Labor has yet to show a clear lead in Guardian Australia’s modelling. The model averages the polls over the time they are in the field and factors in sample sizes, previous results and the “house effects” (bias towards a party) of each pollster.
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Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the best overnight stories and then Krishani Dhanji will be your guide.
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Stock markets in Europe and the US have seen heavy losses after yesterday’s announcement by Donald Trump of tariffs on US trading partners. Anthony Albanese’s government is still considering its response but has unveiled $1bn in loans to help Australian exporters after the tariff hit. We have more coming up.
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The US president’s economic warfare has made him politically toxic with Australian voters. Although the situation is fraught with difficulties for Albanese – will it crash our economy? – there could be political benefits because Peter Dutton has in the past tried to align himself with Trumpist themes such as being “strong” on defence and immigration. Our political writers have their analysis, and in the blog in a minute we’ll look at a new poll showing that Dutton is losing popularity with voters.
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Key events
PM says Western Sydney funding for roads and health will attract high-value businesses
Anthony Albanese is selling his pitch to Western Sydney, with money for health facilities and roads.
On ABC Radio Sydney, Albanese says the upgrades will help attract “high-value businesses” to the area and make the area more attractive for families.
We also are upgrading major roads in the area, making it easier for people to get to and from work and get around Western Sydney.
Western Sydney Airport has to be seen not just as a runway, but as an aerotropolis, something that will attract high value businesses to Western Sydney, creating jobs, and for the first time, making sure that people don’t look when they think about Sydney, don’t look towards the harbour and towards the CBD.
Albanese also pitches the government’s announcements for small businesses (extending the $20,000 instant asset write-off) and on health and bulk-billing that the government says will support households across the region.
Don Farrell: ‘I’m not scared of President Trump’
The trade minister Don Farrell is “not scared” of Donald Trump as he continues to engage with his diplomatic counterparts to reverse the 10% tariffs announced yesterday.
Back in 2017, Anthony Albanese, then a shadow cabinet minister, said Trump “scares the shit out of me”, during the first Trump administration.
The line resurfaced more recently, and has been put to the PM having to deal with Trump mark two. Farrell, spoke to Sky News this morning, and says Trump doesn’t scare the government as it finds a pathway to respond to the tariffs.
I’m not scared of President Trump… My job as trade minister is to represent the best interests of Australia, to get these tariffs removed, to negotiate.
We’ve got the track record on the on the board for negotiations that [brought] $20bn back from China. We’ve negotiated new free trade agreements with India, with the United Kingdom, with the United Arab Emirates. Next Tuesday night, I’m talking with my European counterpart.
I understand that the world has changed. We need to find if we [have] to sell less product into the United States, we need to find new markets.
Albanese on his accidental fall: ‘What’s important isn’t how you go down, it’s how you get up’
Anthony Albanese has announced Labor will extend the small business asset write off for another year to keep it at $20,000.
Both camps are in Western Sydney today vying for voters that will help make or break the election results.
Albanese is on Triple M Sydney and says he’s also announcing $220m to upgrade roads in Rouse Hill and $120m for maternity services in the same area.
There’s a lot of bubbies being born in Western Sydney, and we want to make sure that they can go somewhere locally.
Albanese is also asked about that fall in the Hunter Valley when he tripped off stage yesterday. Albanese brushes it off with a laugh.
I fell for the Hunter Valley many, many years ago. This time it was a bit literal. I stepped back and there was no stage… what’s important isn’t how you go down. It’s how you get up.
Dutton continues to claim US tariff exemptions ‘achievable’
Earlier this morning Peter Dutton spoke to Sunrise (on tariffs – no surprises there).
Dutton insists it’s “achievable” to seal a deal with the US to scrap the 10% tariffs announced yesterday.
The Coalition has pushed hard attacking Labor and the prime minister for not getting a third phone call with Trump. Dutton said on Sunrise, “The ambassador can’t get into the West Wing, it shows had we done the work beforehand, I think there was a deal to be struck”.
He says defence and critical minerals are where a deal is to be made.
There’s an enormous opportunity of value-add for us so I think there is a big play here for our industry and the Americans see value in that, because they want assurances and certainty in their supply chain in the development of their weapons and that’s why they need our critical minerals and we can be a trusted partner.
All of this conversation should’ve been taking place over the last three, four, five months.
The government has insisted they have been engaged with the US administration from day dot and Australian officials and diplomats have been constantly communicating with their counterparts.
How can the Coalition say it will defy an ICC warrant without leaving the court?
The Coalition has said it would welcome Benjamin Netanyahu to Australia, despite Australia being a signatory of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has put out an arrest warrant for the Israeli prime minister.
In 2002, when the John Howard government ratified the Rome Statute of the ICC, he baked into the legislation something of a carve out.
The legislation says the attorney general must not act on an ICC request to arrest or surrender a person “unless the attorney general has, in his or her absolute discretion, signed a certificate that it is appropriate to do so”.
The discretion is not limited to Australian citizens.
In June 2024 when two other Israeli officials were issued arrest warrants, before Netanyahu, Attorney-Generals Department officials said that while ICC member states had “a general obligation to cooperate fully with the court and prosecutions”, they confirmed Australia’s legislation “provides for a discretion”.
You can read more about that here:
Over in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has announced his country will leave the ICC ahead of Netanyahu visiting. The withdrawal bill is likely to pass easily as Orban’s right-wing party has a majority the parliament.
Shadow minister says ICC ‘exceeded its jurisdiction’ regarding Israeli PM
Sally Sara asks about Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu’s declaration to dissect the Gaza strip, and whether the Coalition would support that. Coleman doesn’t address the question, but says the loss of life in the area has been “tragic” and calls for Hamas to release all Israeli hostages.
The situation in Gaza is tragic. The loss of innocent life is a awful thing, and the as you know, the conflict commenced with Hamas’ mass murder of more than 1,000 Israelis.
Sara pushes him on Dutton’s previous comments that Donald Trump is “a man of big ideas” on Gaza.
Look, we obviously disagree with numerous things that the President has said in relation to Gaza. What we want to see is a two state solution … but obviously Sally, we’re a long way away from a two state solution when we have a terrorist organisation controlling Gaza and being involved in mass killings.
Coleman also confirms that Netanyahu would not be arrested in Australia and he believes the International Criminal Court “exceeded its jurisdiction in relation to Mr Netanyahu”.
Opposition continues to say it could have gotten a better deal on tariffs
The opposition is digging in, saying it could have achieved a better outcome on the tariffs announced yesterday (that no country was exempt from, and most countries had higher tariffs).
The shadow foreign minister, David Coleman, has followed Husic on RN Breakfast and says Anthony Albanese should have visited the US to speak with Trump in person.
Sally Sara: You can’t make a visit like that unless [the US] invite it?
Coleman: The prime minister didn’t go, didn’t seek the opportunity to go, and we would. And Peter Dutton has said it would be the first…
Sara: You can’t force the president to invite the prime minister.
Coleman: Well, Peter said the first visit he would make as leader of the country as prime minister is the United States.
Coleman repeats Dutton’s lines yesterday that the government should leverage the defence relationship with the US and increase defence spending to do that. Dutton – in his budget reply speech – foreshadowed the Coalition would announce an increase in the defence budget during the election campaign.
Husic says preventing ‘cut-price’ products being dumped in Australia is necessary
Yesterday the government announced $5m in funding to the anti-dumping commission – to stop low-cost exports being shipped into Australia – as part of its five-point response plan to the US tariffs.
Husic says the money will help the commission stop exports from overseas coming into Australia and undermining Australian industry,
My big concern has been in a period of global trade disruption, products that might have been sitting on vessels going over to markets that have now imposed tariffs may reconsider where they ship those products and to try and get them off vessels.
If they’re thinking that they’ll have a cut-price mentality that brings them lower-than-production cost[s] and results in dumping, we’ve got to be ready for it.
Having dumped product[s] in Australia at this point in time just is the worst thing.
Husic emphasises that free and open trade is good, and a key principle of Australia’s economy, but this global uncertainty shouldn’t create an environment where “cut-price” or low-cost product makes its way to Australia.
That’s what our government is doing to make sure we’re protected and we’ve got free and fair trade.
Husic say US’s Liberation Day a ‘self-imposed inflation day’
The tariff reaction continues, and the focus is on critical minerals and what more Australia can do to leverage our vast supplies of the resource.
The industry minister, Ed Husic, tells ABC RN breakfast the government is still working through the details and speaking with their US counterparts following yesterday’s announcement.
The official statement said certain minerals would be exempt from tariffs, but Husic can’t specify exactly what those minerals might be. He says:
A big focus [from] our government has been to strengthen our economic resilience, to help us weather events like the US’s self-imposed inflation day, I know they’re calling it Liberation Day, is really just about jacking up their own inflation. We have highly sought-after, in-demand
because we’re a quality producer across a range of areas … we want to continue making that high-quality product.
The Trump tariffs it could cost the Australian economy $27bn, according to analysis by our economics and business reporters.
Read their full piece here:
After Donald Trump railed about Australian restrictions on American beef, we factcheck his claims and ask what the tariffs mean for our farmers.
Read our piece here:
Trade minister says government’s aim is to remove all US tariffs
Farrell says the Labor government reversed $20bn in trade tariffs from China, and is aiming to similarly remove all tariffs being imposed on Australian goods in the US.
He also takes a dig at the Coalition’s response to the tariffs yesterday:
I guess my concern yesterday, you talk about negotiations, was when the opposition leader threw in our national security and our defence issues as part of this process. I think that’s a very dangerous way to go, James [Glenday], and we certainly won’t be going down that track.
Yesterday, Dutton said he wanted to put more on the table including defence to get the US to remove trade tariffs – but he wouldn’t provide details on exactly what would be on offer.
When asked whether he would put forward a “stick” option against the US, Dutton said his approach was the “opposite” of that.
Farrell says announcements to come over critical minerals
The trade minister, Don Farrell, says the government will use critical minerals as a negotiating tactic with the US – though when Australia tried to negotiate on the resource after the first round of tariffs came into effect, the US wouldn’t accept a deal.
Farrell tells ABC News Breakfast that the government hasn’t given up on negotiating with the US:
Australia is in the bottom rung of those countries affected by tariffs …
We haven’t given up and certainly the comments that we have made to the United States and the comments that have come back from them is that they are still prepared to talk with us about this issue, and we will … continue to negotiate with them with a view to removing all of those tariffs.
Farrell says Australia already has a critical minerals deal with Europe and the government will have more to announce on minerals son.
Q: Why did the US administration slapped tariffs on Norfolk Island, Heard Island and the McDonald Islands?
Poor old penguins, I don’t know what they did to Mr Trump, but, look, I think it’s an indication, to be honest with you, James, that this was a rushed process … it’s clearly a mistake.
For those not in the know, Heard and the McDonald islands are a) external Australian territories, meaning they already would come under Australian tariffs, and b) completely uninhabited.
Young voters and the gender divide
Voting trends among Gen Zers in the western world point to young men favouring more rightwing parties while young women are leaning more to the left.
The divide could have an impact in the federal election where many of the younger generation will be voting for the first time.
Benita Kolovos has been speaking to some younger voters about the gender divide – “there’s this sort of us v them kind of mentality” says one – while a date-gone-wrong showed Grace Richardson (pictured) that the hill was “much steeper” than she thought.
Read the full article here:
Bandt: federal election a ‘battle of the Band-Aids’
Now we’re onto the toothbrush: Bandt says people have been putting off going to the dentist because they can’t afford it.
The Greens have said they would pay to get dental into Medicare by taxing large corporations:
By bringing that into Medicare, it will deliver real savings. How do we afford it? Well, at the moment, one in three big corporations in this country pays no tax at all and so we have released a costed plan to make these big corporations start paying their fair share of tax.
Bandt says dental is a big priority for the minor party if it gets into a negotiating position in the event of a minority government.
But the Greens want more action on climate and Bandt believes neither party is doing enough on housing, healthcare or the environment.
You just have to look at the first week of the campaign, it’s the battle of the Band-Aids. We’re facing these big crises in this country – people can’t afford to buy a home, people are skipping healthcare because they can’t afford it, we got floods, we got fires, and instead we’ve just got this tinkering around the edges. [We’ve] got a choice between the timid and the terrible really.
Bandt brandishes brush as he urges Australia to ‘detach’ from Trump
If there’s one thing that this campaign has so far been missing, it’s giant props – but it appears Greens leader Adam Bandt has us covered this morning, with a giant toothbrush on ABC News Breakfast (no prizes for what he’ll be talking about).
But before he gets to dental into Medicare – which is where I assume he’s going – Bandt is talking Trump and says Australia should be “detaching ourselves” from the US president.
Donald Trump is dangerous, a danger to peace, a danger to democracy … very clearly these aren’t the act of a friend, but still Australia acts as if Donald Trump is going to ride to the rescue … when it comes to defence, for example, I think this is an opportunity for Australia to detach itself from Donald Trump, have a much more independent relationship.
We have got the capacity to now forge those new alliances with other countries.
Bandt says Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton have been talking tough when Australia should be looking at resetting its relationship with the US.
He points to Canada, who he says have reassessed that alliance.
Dan Jervis-Bardy
PM returns to Sydney to end first week of campaigning
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, will wrap up the first week of the election campaign with his first stop in his home city of Sydney.
The NSW capital is home to several battleground electorates, with Labor bracing for defeat in Bennelong and under threat in several other seats including Parramatta, Werriwa and Macarthur.
Senior Labor ministers Tony Burke (Watson) and Jason Clare (Blaxland) are also facing challenges from independent candidates hoping to tap into discontent with the government’s approach to the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Albanese is scheduled to appear at a Daily Telegraph-hosted event in western Sydney on Friday, where he will reportedly commit to extend the $20,000 instant asset write-off for small businesses and tradies for another year.
The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, will make a $231m roads funding announcement at the same event, the Daily Telegraph reports.
Ahead of the event, Albanese announced $120m for a new birthing service at Rouse Hill Hospital in north-west Sydney. The PM said:
Western Sydney is one of our fastest growing areas, and we will deliver $120m to deliver birthing and maternity services at the new Rouse Hill hospital – so mums-to-be in Western Sydney can give birth closer to home.
Good morning
Krishani Dhanji
Krishani Dhanji here with you: thanks to Martin Farrer for starting us off this morning.
It’s Friday! Honestly it’s been a long journey getting to this point (and there’s still so much campaign to go).
Donald Trump and his tariffs are still dominating our headlines in Australia and there’ll be plenty more political reaction to it today.
The prime minister and Peter Dutton are both in Sydney today, and both making announcements for western Sydney, an area crucial for both parties.
So buckle up, it’s going to be a big one!
YouGov poll says Dutton’s approval lowest since becoming opposition leader
Elias Visontay
Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s popularity with voters has plummeted, a fresh poll suggests, with his approval rating at its lowest since taking on the Coalition’s top job.
In a YouGov poll provided to Australian Associated Press – the first conducted since the federal election was called – Dutton’s satisfaction rating dropped to negative 15, slumping by 10 points in the two weeks since the previous poll.
Prime minister Anthony Albanese’s rating improved slightly over the same period, increasing from negative nine to negative six. The poll’s results are the first time since June that Albanese has a higher net-satisfaction rating than Dutton.
Albanese also solidified his lead as preferred prime minister, leading 45% to 38%, after a two-point drop in support for Dutton as leader.
On a two-party preferred basis, Labor holds a slim 51-49 lead over the Coalition.
The YouGov poll also showed Labor’s primary vote went backwards slightly since the election campaign started, dropping one point to 30%, while the Coalition’s fell by two points to 35%. Greens and One Nation have remained at 13% and 7% respectively, while independents have enjoyed a slight increase of two points to 10%.
However, according to the latest analysis from Guardian Australia’s poll tracker – a model developed by political scientists, which follows all the major polls – the Coalition still leads overall on primary and two-party preferred support.
After four consecutive weeks of gains for Labor, the model showed the party’s two-party preferred support starting to level off.
