Two weeks ago, the New York Times put an asterisk on the success of “Sinners;” this week, it’s in the “Thunderbolts*” title. Maybe one should be on every Marvel movie; there’s always extenuating factors before we can declare MCU box office a hit or a flop.
“Thunderbolts*” made $75 million domestic and $86.2 million internationally for a global haul of $161.2 million. With a $180 million production budget before marketing, that start is fine.
On its face, the domestic opening is lower than this year’s “Captain America: Brave New World” ($89 million), well below “Deadpool & Wolverine” ($211 million), and even below the much-maligned “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” ($106 million). The last MCU film to open (much) lower was “The Marvels” ($46 million), the MCU’s biggest bomb to date.
But with the exception of “Deadpool & Wolverine,” “Thunderbolts*” has a solid chance to outperform all of those films.
Disney said with $86 million internationally, that’s 45 percent ahead of “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” at this point in its release. That film is a good comp, as it represents post-“Endgame” MCU with new characters and a comparable budget; it also opened to $75.3 million domestic. It wound up at $432 million global, which means its $225 million domestic total was three times its domestic opening weekend.
That would be a strong figure for “Thunderbolts*,” made especially notable because most Marvel movies have struggled to get anywhere near that multiple in the post-“Avengers: Endgame” world. “Brave New World” dropped off a cliff in its second weekend, falling 68 percent. Its multiple looks closer to 2.3x than even a steadier and more typical 2.5x. Movies like “Black Widow,” “Eternals,” “Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness,” “Thor: Love and Thunder,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” “The Marvels,” and “Ant-Man 3” all finished at or below that 2.3x multiple.
So is “Thunderbolts*” good Marvel or bad Marvel? Reviews would suggest it’s the former and audiences would agree. The film got an A- CinemaScore, same as “Black Widow” and “Ant-Man 2,” whereas “Brave New World” had a dismal B-, the lowest CinemaScore for any Marvel film. The hype is good and continues to build, and it may get another boost thanks to a marketing stunt that suggests a new title for the film, “*The New Avengers.”
“Thunderbolts*” won’t do “Guardians of the Galaxy” or “Deadpool & Wolverine” money (look to “Fantastic Four: First Steps” in July for that possibility), but it’s still a strong result for a franchise that constantly seeks a savior. No asterisk required.
