There is no single event on the hype-infused NFL calendar that lends itself more fully to the concept of overreaction than the draft. Just about every pick is examined as a make-or-break decision for the franchise that makes it, regardless of all the historical data about hit rates and any reminders issued about reining in expectations.
This year, though … this year has been special. The 2025 draft featured an entire sub-industry of overreaction around one particular player who ended up being the 144th pick.
When Round 1 passed Thursday night and Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders was still on the board, Friday’s NFL discourse became all about why. When the second and third rounds ended Friday night and Sanders still hadn’t been drafted, the discourse was on fire. Was this personal? Had Sanders’ camp mismanaged the process to the point that teams were hesitant to take him? Five quarterbacks went in the first three rounds. One of them was Dillon Gabriel, who was ranked No. 217 overall by ESPN’s Scouts Inc. Something had to be up, right?
At last, the Browns ended our long national nightmare when they traded up to take Sanders with the sixth pick of the fifth round. Cleveland had long made sense as a Sanders destination, but since the Browns were the team that took Gabriel at the tail end of Round 3, Saturday opened with some skepticism about whether Sanders was still a possibility.
Cleveland’s quarterback room now includes Deshaun Watson, Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Gabriel and Sanders. That’s three first-round picks and two rookies, which is kind of amazing when you step back and think about it. The Browns also have been considered a possible trade destination for veteran Kirk Cousins, who remains on the Falcons’ roster as a very expensive projected backup to Michael Penix Jr.
How that all sorts itself out remains to be seen, but at least Sanders knows where he gets to go to work and try to prove to the NFL that he’s better than the No. 144 pick. He also gets the privilege of kicking off our annual draft overreactions column:
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By Saturday, Shedeur Sanders would have been better off going undrafted
This was a sentiment I heard from multiple people in the NFL on Saturday morning, once Sanders hadn’t been picked in the first three rounds. The thinking was that going undrafted would have allowed him to pick his own team and negotiate his own contract. The 144th pick in last year’s draft got a four-year deal worth a total of $4.369 million. Undrafted players sign three-year deals and therefore can get to free agency sooner than drafted players can.
Had Sanders not been drafted Saturday, he could have steered his way to a place where he could compete for the starting job and, if he won it and played well, could have been in position for a big-money extension two years from now. Every year, there are players (and agents) who get to the sixth and seventh rounds and start hoping they don’t get picked because going undrafted gives them more freedom.
The verdict: OVERREACTION
It’s an interesting idea, for sure. And if Sanders had been picked by a team such as the Chiefs, Bengals or Chargers — teams with cemented starting quarterbacks in place — I probably would have agreed with it. But Cleveland offers Sanders an opportunity to compete for and win the starting job right away.
Watson, who had another surgery on his right Achilles tendon, might not play much this season, if at all. Unseating Flacco, Pickett and Gabriel shouldn’t be an impossible task if Sanders is the pro-ready prospect he believes himself to be.
This is a young man who, because of the family into which he was born and the way his career has been curated so far, has not known life as any kind of underdog. It remains to be seen how he’ll handle it, but we’ve seen plenty of quarterbacks (and players at other positions) who have used their draft tumbles as fuel and motivation. If Sanders can do that, the Browns offer him a chance to make a lot of people look foolish.
Drafting Jaxson Dart will save the jobs of Giants coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen — at least for one year
The Giants traded up in the first round to get Dart, the quarterback they decided was their favorite in this draft (outside of Cam Ward) after a full and thorough evaluation of the field. Dart doesn’t have to start right away; the Giants signed veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston for that reason. After finally getting out from under the Daniel Jones pick/extension fiasco, Daboll has the opportunity to groom and develop the quarterback of his choosing.
Whether Dart plays Week 1, Week 9 or not at all in 2025, it stands to reason the Giants will want to give Daboll and Schoen a long enough runway with the kid to see if he can be their quarterback of the future — even if that runway extends into 2026.
The verdict: OVERREACTION
It’s a logical conclusion to reach, and it could turn out to be the case. But history tells us drafting a first-round quarterback is absolutely no guarantee of job security. This time last year, Matt Eberflus (Bears) and Jerod Mayo (Patriots) were coaches of teams that drafted first-round quarterbacks, and both are gone. (As are their offensive coordinators, before you come at me with that point.)
Frank Reich (Panthers), Urban Meyer (Jaguars), Matt Nagy (Bears, again), Anthony Lynn (Chargers), Pat Shurmur (Giants), Jay Gruden (Washington), Hue Jackson (Browns), Todd Bowles (Jets) and Steve Wilks (Cardinals) all were fired within a year of selecting a first-round quarterback, and that list only goes back to 2018.
The Daboll/Dart connection might very well be what resurrects the Giants franchise. The coach and the QB both appear to have the talent to make it work. But if 2025 goes badly, there’s plenty of recent history that tells us hope for the future isn’t enough to save a coach’s job.
The Jaguars have a new coach and GM, and the bold trade up for Hunter on the first night of the draft signals an aggressive approach with the goal of changing the fortunes of a team that picks in the top five way, way, way too often. But while GM James Gladstone and coach Liam Coen have the mandate and ability to change a lot of things, they’re more or less stuck with Lawrence, whose contract includes $37 million fully guaranteed in 2026 and $29 million fully guaranteed in 2027.
So the reason to pick Hunter, the two-way star out of Colorado whom they can deploy as both a wide receiver and a cornerback, is at least partly to provide more passing-game help for Lawrence, along with brilliant 2024 first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Lawrence might not have delivered on his stratospheric promise just yet — he has thrown 69 touchdown passes and 46 interceptions in his first four seasons — but he’s far from a lost cause. He doesn’t even turn 26 until October. He needs to get and stay consistently healthy, and it’s tough to see how Hunter can help with that. Assuming Lawrence is on the field, he should enjoy having Hunter as a reliable downfield target.
Plus, to whatever extent the face-of-the-franchise pressure that comes with being a No. 1 pick and getting a $55 million-per-year contract extension has affected Lawrence, Hunter will help with that too.
Given how special a player Hunter is, and the likelihood that his two-way abilities will captivate the league and the Jaguars’ fan base, he has a good chance to become the most talked-about player on the team in short order. Maybe he’s the kind of attention vacuum who eases some of the pressure on Lawrence to function as the franchise savior.
2:02
Why Stephen A. still doesn’t view Jags as ‘box office’ with Hunter
Stephen A. Smith reacts to the Jaguars’ trade to move up to No. 2 and select Travis Hunter.
The Steelers blew it by not drafting a quarterback before Round 6
Many were surprised when the Steelers selected defensive tackle Derrick Harmon with the No. 21 pick, given their glaring need for quarterback and the fact that only one had been selected at that point. They didn’t pick again until the 19th pick of the third round because they had traded their second-round pick for DK Metcalf, and by then, only two more quarterbacks had been selected. They went with running back Kaleb Johnson there. In the fourth round, Pittsburgh took edge rusher Jack Sawyer, and in the fifth, it took defensive tackle Yahya Black.
With Mason Rudolph and Skylar Thompson as the only quarterbacks on the roster, and the franchise still awaiting an answer from veteran free agent Aaron Rodgers, the Steelers didn’t select a quarterback until Will Howard with the ninth pick of the sixth round. You can “But Tom Brady” me all you want, and sure, Howard could develop into something, but pick No. 185 is Backup Country.
The verdict: OVERREACTION
I just can’t rip the Steelers for not forcing a quarterback. They did exactly that three years ago when they selected Kenny Pickett in the first round of a draft in which no other quarterbacks went before the third round. Whiffing on Pickett is a big part of the reason they find themselves in their current quarterback pickle. If there had been a guy there at No. 21 — or even at No. 83 — whom they truly believed in as their long-term franchise QB, they should absolutely have taken him. But clearly, there was not, and the Steelers have repeatedly told us they believe they still have avenues for addressing the position between now and the start of the season.
They still believe there’s a good chance they end up with Rodgers. If they don’t get him, they could ring up the Falcons and ask about Kirk Cousins. Rudolph is a player they like a lot more than people outside of their building seem to, and they point to the fact that he helped rescue their season and lead them to the playoffs just two years ago.
Next year’s draft quarterback class is expected to be richer in talent than this year’s was, and if they can patch the 2025 season together with some combination of Rodgers/Cousins/Rudolph-type veterans, it’s possible they can fix the long-term issue a year from now. It’s the Steelers, everybody. We know they’ll find a way to win more games than they lose.
Kirk Cousins is stuck in Atlanta for one more year
After signing for $100 million in guaranteed money with the Falcons in free agency last year, Cousins was stunned when Atlanta drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the top 10 of the 2024 draft. Cousins’ poor performance and the Falcons’ late-season slide led to him being benched for Penix, who is Atlanta’s projected starting quarterback for 2025.
The team did not release Cousins ahead of free agency and has said publicly it’s comfortable with him being Penix’s backup. Privately, the Falcons have entertained trade proposals from other teams but have so far insisted on acquiring teams picking up a significant portion of the $37.5 million in guaranteed money still remaining on his contract, and that’s a big reason he hasn’t been dealt.
With free agency and now the draft having come and gone, it’s fair to wonder whether Cousins will end up being traded this offseason or whether he’ll have to wait until next spring to get loose from his current situation.
The verdict: OVERREACTION
It’s not over! The Steelers still need a guy. Maybe the Browns aren’t done collecting QBs. Maybe the Colts get through OTAs and don’t feel great about Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones. Somebody, somewhere could get hurt in minicamp and open up a spot.
Cousins’ contract includes a full no-trade clause, and even if the Falcons came up with a trade, he wasn’t going to approve one until after the draft because he didn’t want the same thing to happen to him this year that happened last year. Now, with the draft over, he and Atlanta can regroup and see whether there’s anything out there that makes sense. It’s still possible there is.
Caleb Williams is going to be in the MVP conversation this season
The No. 1 pick in last year’s draft, Williams and the Bears endured a difficult 2024 season that saw coach Matt Eberflus get fired before it was over. Chicago finished 5-12 and was the only team in its division that did not reach the playoffs. The Bears hired offensive coordinator Ben Johnson away from division-rival Detroit to be their coach and hopefully find a way to get the best out of Williams in 2025 and moving forward. They beefed up the interior of their offensive line right away in free agency. And they used their first three picks of this draft on offensive players.
The goal is clearly to make life easier for Williams as he continues to develop, and to find a way to challenge for a playoff spot in the league’s toughest division.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
While Johnson is obviously unproven as a head coach, he has established himself as one of the league’s most creative and effective offensive play-designers and playcallers. The Bears’ offense already had talented pass-catching options in wide receivers D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze, tight end Cole Kmet and running back D’Andre Swift, and the first two rounds of this draft brought them tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III. For good measure, they used the second of their two second-round picks on offensive tackle Ozzy Trapilo.
If the protection holds up, Williams is going to have a ton of places he can go with the ball on any particular play, and with Johnson drawing the plays up, this could be as exciting an offense as there is in the league. There’s always a team that goes from last place to first place in its division from one year to the next.
And while the presence of the Lions, Vikings and Packers in their division might well prevent the Bears from being that, if they improve enough to contend for a playoff spot, it’ll probably be because Williams and all of those offensive targets have lit up the scoreboard week in and week out.
