After nearly eight months of prep races across the country and around the world, the 2025 Kentucky Derby will be contested on Saturday at Churchill Downs. This will be the 151st Run for the Roses, and last year Forever Young became the first horse ever trained in Japan to hit the board, finishing third and coming two noses shy of a victory. The 2025 Kentucky Derby field will include two Japanese entries, Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona. Luxor Cafe is 15-1 in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds and is a son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
Admire Daytona won the UAE Derby and is listed as a 30-1 Kentucky Derby 2025 longshot. Who wins this year’s Run for the Roses and which longshots should you consider to spice up your exactas, trifectas and superfectas? SportsLine’s horse racing experts are breaking down the Kentucky Derby 2025 from all angles.
Handicapper Jody Demling has hit 11 Derby-Oaks doubles in the last 16 years. He’s also nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and predicted the winner of the Preakness 10 of the last 20 years. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on betting sites like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge. You can see Demling’s full projected leaderboard at SportsLine.
Here are three Kentucky Derby longshots to target, according to Demling:
Burnham Square (12-1)
Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. is one of the top riders at Churchill Downs and he used his intimate knowledge of the grounds to help pilot Mystik Dan to a masterful win in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Mystik Dan came from the No. 3 post to win as an 18-1 longshot in a three-way photo finish over Sierra Leone and Forever Young. Hernandez navigated heavy traffic and squeezed by on the rail before holding off the late chargers for a historic win.
Now, Hernandez teams up with Australian trainer Ian Wilkes, who won the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic with Fort Larned and was an assistant trainer when Carl Nafzger won with Street Sense in 2007. Burnham Square was bred to handle this distance and he’s one of the most proven closers in the field with come-from-behind wins in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Blue Grass Stakes. You can bet Burnham Square now at TwinSpires and get up to $400 in bonus bets.
Luxor Cafe (15-1)
American Pharoah has a case as the greatest American thoroughbred in history as the only horse to win the United States grand slam. This is one of his sons and he was shipped to Japan shortly after he was foaled in 2022, where he qualified for the Kentucky Derby with an impressive win at the Fukuryu Stakes earlier this year. Only three Triple Crown winners have sired offspring that went on to win the Kentucky Derby, but Luxor Cafe’s half-brother Publisher is also in the field.
“(Luxor Cafe’s) resume looks better after the UAE Derby because he crushed the winner (Admire Daytona) previously. He shipped into Churchill late but still looks good and could be a surprise,” Demling said.
Grande (20-1)
Considering his connections and his pedigree, this horse is clearly flying under the radar entering the 151st Run for the Roses. Jockey John Velazquez is a three-time Derby winner, trainer Todd Pletcher has won the first leg of the Triple Crown twice and sire Curlin was third in 2007 before going on to win the Preakness Stakes later that year. He’s only made three starts in his career but looked competitive in his stakes debut despite not getting a clean trip.
“He’ll run well and should like the distance. He was second in the Wood Memorial and raced wide the entire time,” Demling said. Velazquez wasn’t in the mount for the Wood Memorial but does have experience on Grande after guiding him to wins in his first two career starts. 1/ST BET will give you up to $250 in bonus bets for the Kentucky Derby, so you could give Grande a whirl.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is also high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside” and has revealed his pick to win the 151st Run for the Roses. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard and betting tickets, over at SportsLine.
SportsLine also has Kentucky Derby 2025 picks from long-time horse racing journalist Gene Menez, who gave out last year’s winner Mystik Dan (18-1) as a live longshot. You can also find 2025 Kentucky Derby bets from Michelle Yu, a racing analyst who has already hit winners in multiple prep races this year.
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