Best Documentary or Nonfiction Special Predictions

by oqtey
Best Documentary or Nonfiction Special Predictions

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2025 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 12 to June 23, with the official Emmy nominations announced Tuesday, July 15. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 18 and ends the night of August 27. The 77th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 14, and air live on CBS at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

The State of the Race

The competition for the Emmy for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special is so tight this year that Hulu alone could fill the category with its contenders. Some of the ones that have made a splash so far include “Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen & The E Street Band,” the latest collaboration between the New Jersey icon and director Thom Zimny, and Andrew McCarthy’s “Brats,” which allows the former teen star to unpack the experience of him and his peers receiving so much attention.

But the frontrunner for Hulu is probably “Sly Lives! (aka The Burden of Black Genius),” Ahmir ‘Questlove’ Thompson’s long-awaited follow up to his Oscar-winning documentary “Summer of Soul.” Like its predecessor, “Sly Lives!” was a Sundance breakout, but then, somewhat out of the blue, “Ladies and Gentlemen… 50 Years of SNL Music,” which was also co-directed by Questlove and Oz Rodriguez premiered on Peacock in late January, within a week of the musician-turned-filmmaker’s festival film. 

Obviously, when one is submitting a film for a festival, or making a project that is pegged to an event like “SNL50,” they do not have much control over what premieres when. But thankfully for Questlove, the films seem like they complement each other, therefore giving him a pretty good chance of being nominated twice in this Emmy category. That is already the case for him at the upcoming Gotham TV Awards.

Moving from an individual filmmaker to network’s documentary slates as a whole, everyone similarly has about two specials that could realistically make the cut, making it all the more harder on voters to decide. For instance, Netflix campaigned both “Will & Harper” and “Martha” for Oscars, despite the Academy’s distaste for any celebrity-focused documentaries. The Television Academy is more willing to come through for those types of films, putting Netflix in strong standing.

Same with Disney+, where its documentary “Music by John Williams” is familiar to the awards voting crowd via its Oscar campaign, which included opening the 2024 AFI Festival, but one of its other submissions “Beatles ’64” builds upon the momentum set up by “The Beatles: Get Back,” which won the docuseries Emmy for Disney+ three years ago.

And then Apple TV+ has “Deaf President Now!,” co-directed by Davis Guggenheim, who won this category two years ago for “Still,” and “Number One on the Call Sheet,” which features just about every Black actor that has led a major film or TV project in the last few decades, including the special’s executive producer Jamie Foxx.

HBO has positioned itself as a destination for documentaries more than any other network, but seems the most firm in “Pee Wee as Himself” being its top contender, even when there are other strong options like “Music Box: Yacht Rock: A Dockumentary” or “Wise Guys: David Chase and The Sopranos.” Amazon Prime Video and Paramount+ also boast longer slates, but have an emphasis on “I Am: Celine Dion” and “¡Casa Bonita Mi Amor!” respectively.

It will be fascinating to see, as campaigning kicks into high gear, which projects voters will ultimately gravitate toward because the networks could use some help deciding which of their films is a real winner in this incredibly strong year for documentary specials.

Current Contenders (In Alphabetical Order):
“Beatles ’64” (Disney+)
“Brats” (Hulu)
“¡Casa Bonita Mi Amor!” (Paramount+)
“Deaf President Now!” (Apple TV+)
“I Am: Celine Dion” (Prime Video)
“Ladies and Gentlemen… 50 Years of SNL Music” (Peacock)
“Last Take: Rust and the Story of Halyna” (Hulu)
“Martha” (Netflix)
“Music Box: Yacht Rock: A Dockumentary” (HBO)
“Music by John Williams” (Disney+)
“Number One on the Call Sheet” (Apple TV+)
“Pee Wee as Himself” (HBO)
“Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen & The E Street Band” (Hulu)
“Sly Lives! (aka The Burden of Black Genius)” (Hulu)
“Will & Harper” (Netflix)

More Category Predictions:
Outstanding Animated Program
Outstanding Talk Series
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 77th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: “Jim Henson Idea Man”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Having “Beatles” in your project’s title certainly strikes fear into the networks one is campaigning against, so there is totally a chance Disney+ wins the Documentary Special a second year in a row for “Beatles ’64.” Less of a chance for “Music by John Williams,” but anything is possible.
Notable Ineligible Series: “Black Box Diaries” (ineligible as a 2025 Oscar nominee); “Sugarcane” (ineligible as a 2025 Oscar nominee); “Daughters” (the film was not submitted for Primetime Emmys consideration); “The Truth vs. Alex Jones” (the film was not submitted for Primetime Emmys consideration)

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